Sunday, May 2, 2010

Where did the hurricanes go?

This was previously posted on on or before 2006-11-09:

Several months ago, l watched Al Gore's movie on the world going to hell in a handbasket as a result of global warming, in turn a result of pollution. This movie was filmed mostly at the end of 2005 or early 2006. The climax of the movie is when Al Gore points out that the Earth has become warmer over the last 30 years, and that 2005 was the warmest year yet (at least since the Bronze age). All of this heat is supposed to be the cause of the hurricanes that devastated Florida and the Gulf Coast in 2005. I remember Al Gore wagging his finger and implying that it is just going to get worse and worse unless we "do something."

Now here is one point: What happened to the hurricanes in 2006? 2005 was bad and allegedly the result of these nasty global warming trend, in turn caused by pollution. By this token, 2006 should have been even worse. More pollution, warmer climate, more hurricanes.

I have no idea whether 2006 was warmer or colder than 2005, but I do know that our cars got cleaner in 2006 as they have in each of the last 30 years. And I do know that the hurricanes somehow took a vacation. Perhaps they come back again in 2007, but for the moment I don't hear Al Gore pushing this particular argument. I mean, if 2005 was the worst year because there were so many hurricanes caused by the warm weather as a result of the pollution, then 2006 must have been the best year because there weren't any hurricanes caused by cold weather as a result of reduced pollution, right?

I don't think so, either way, but at a minimum the recent data does undercut Al Gore's argument as much as anybody else's. My memory isn't the best, but I do remember the logic as it was presented less than a full year ago, and things now look to have turned 180 degrees.

Speaking of degrees, Global Warming may have been the theme of the last 18 years, but it was only in the 1970s that many of the same people (Al Gore himself?) warned about the new ice age. I remember distinctly that when I was in school in 1980 we were taught that we would have to move to Africa because "not even in Spain would it be warm enough to grow oranges." The cause of this new ice age? The same one as global warming, of course: Pollution. No matter whether the Earth becomes warmer or colder, the cause is always the same.

Yeah, and during the bronze age and the ice age... Looooots of industry, lots of pollution!

Ever thought about the simplest physical facts? At night, it gets colder than during the day, at Winter, it gets colder than Summer - and vice versa. And what's the reason for that? The sun, of course. That's some radical temperature differences between night and day, Summer and Winter. Why can't global warming (the 1988 to present fad) and the new ice age (the 1970s fad) simply be the result of the sun's emitting power not being 100% even? Perhaps it is just a bit stronger at times, and weaker at other times? I am not a scientist, but it does make sense that such fluctuations better explain what's going on in terms of temperatures on Earth, than this pollution business.

Think about it: There was no industry until some 200 years ago. And the temperatures on Earth went up and down before 1800 anyway. Then pollution increased until the 1970s and then temperatures went both up and down for those almost 200 years. And then after 1970 our environment has been getting cleaner every year, first allegedly causing a new ice age and now more recently causing global warming. Hey, the logic doesn't hold.